“Over/Under” is a glance at a pair of players at each position; one who TDR believes in overrated, and one who we believe is underrated.
OVER: Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
It’s not that Tannehill doesn’t have the potential to develop into a solid starting quarterback; he definitely has the desired size and a strong enough arm to become a successful NFL signal-caller. It’s his projected draft position that lands him in TDR’s OVER column. The known fact that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be the first two players off the board has made Tannehill’s stock skyrocket far beyond where his actual skill level should have him drafted. He put up solid number for the Aggies, but still has enough to work on (deep-ball accuracy, deep outs sailing out-of-bounds, decision-making) that I grade him in very late-first/early-second round area. Depending on how things shake out, however, he could go as high as #4 to Cleveland, or more realistically, to Miami at #8. That’s much to high for someone who still needs as much polish as Tannehill does.
UNDER: Russell Wilson, Wisconsin
I’ve still only heard one single knock on last year’s NCAA leader in passing efficiency: his size. And I’m well aware that every time there’s an even mildly-successful QB who measures in at less than six feet tall, too many people start clamoring that he’s inevitably the next Drew Brees. So, I’m not saying his lack of height doesn’t matter, nor am I saying he’s the second coming of St. Drew. What I’m saying is that he’s got a better-than-average chance of making some NFL team very happy by far outplaying his draft position when they snag him in the later rounds of this draft. He has all the physical tools you look for in a quarterback, and the biggest statistical deficiency he had heading into his senior season was his completion percentage, which he improved from 58.4 as a junior to 72.8 as a senior, giving him a career average just over 60 percent. He doesn’t have Matthew Stafford’s cannon, but his arm is strong enough to make all the necessary throws, and his short-to-intermediate accuracy is exceptional. In limited action as a freshman at N.C. State, Wilson threw 17 TDs and just one pick, and as a senior at Wisconsin threw for 33 scores and just 4 INTs, giving him 109/30 for his career. Throw in 1,427 yards and 23 TDs rushing, and you’ve got a recipe for a solid, versatile threat at QB, and a sleeper who could develop into a gem in the right system with the right instruction.